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Im not even sure what direction were going.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. They run the gamut from. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. bellwether counties epoch times The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The Epoch Times - YouTube There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? By Cara Ding. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. 0:00 0:00. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. bellwether - Political Dictionary Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. I dont watch TV. I think all politicians are crooks. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Their fear is real, mine is. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. This claim is basically absurd. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Logistically, its a disaster. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Two states have announced recounts. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Please read our comments policy before commenting. He is his own worst enemy.. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. 2016 Trump. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. List of election bellwether counties in the United States It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Vance. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. I dont listen to the news. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . I think thats what the world needed. And it can happen.. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. But thats not the picture I look at. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. We need election reform.. Jim Hoft. We believe that there are two main reasons. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. . Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Theres too much corruption. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. "If. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. County Legislature Approves Revised $75 Million ARPA Spending Plan As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Peoples common sense level is cooked. I think he is more for giving to the people.. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Opinion | The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How - The New York Times A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Its just not that great, Paul said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. I think its very political right now, honestly. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said.